Games * Design * Art * Culture

Thursday, February 08, 2007

The Economics of Selling Games Online

I've received a number of inquiries recently from people asking about the economics of selling online--some trying to get a sense of what the market is like at present, and some more along the lines of "why should I give Manifesto Games 40% of the sale of my game?" 60% of the retail dollar is pretty attractive by comparison to what most portals take, but it's a fair question. So I thought I'd run through some scenarios, to give a sense of what options are out there, and what the economics look like.

Let's take the single most developer-favorable option: You sell off your own website. You probably contract with another party (e.g., Plimus or RegNow) to handle DRM and handle payments (credit card fees, Paypal, etc). The deals of these third parties vary, but Plimus takes 10% of any sale over $9, which makes for an easy calculation. I'm going to assuming going forward that we're talking about a game that retails for $20, with an unlockable installer that is 20MB in size--typical for a casual game (though many of the games we offer have much larger installers).

Here's what it looks like if you sell off your own site, using Plimus:
$20 = cost to consumer
-$2 = 10% charge by Plimus or an equivalent service
=$18 to you
90% developer share

Go for it; this is the best deal you can get, and the more you can sell this way, the better. Upload your unlockable demo to Download.com, because doing so is free, and maybe consider other services like Shareware.com and Tucows, which are not inherently free but have different policies. Look around for these options, determine whether what they want is reasonable, and distribute your installer as widely as feasible.

Next, let's deal with what you can expect in dealing with portals, ranging from big ones like Yahoo! Games and RealArcade through medium-sized ones like Reflexive and small ones like, well, us.

And let's start with what I think is the most favorable deal on offer--ours. We pay 60% to the developer, with no hidden chargebacks--we don't deduct credit card fees, DRM fees, affiliate fees, nothing. It's a simple calculation:

$20 = cost to consumer
-$8 -- 40% to Manifesto
=$12 to developer
60% developer share

The only operation I know of that offers a more favorable developer split is XBLA (I've heard up to 75% to the developer), and if you can make a deal with them, go for that, certainly. More typical is 40% to the developer, and I've heard deals as low aso 20% to the developer (big portal, small developer). But let's take 40% as representative.

In most cases, DRM, credit card fees, and bandwidth charges are taken off the top before the split. Credit card fees can vary, but figure about 3% of the sale goes to that; DRM fees are normally around 25 cents. Let's assume that there's a conversion rate of 1.2% (that is, 1.2% of the people who download the demo actually buy the game--this is, from what I've heard, typical for casual games--we do better, but we also don't charge for bandwidth). Thus, 83 users, or so, have to download a game for each purchase. At 20MB per installer, that's 1660kB, or ~1.62GB. Let's say the portal can get bandwidth for 20 cents per GB (which is low, but what we pay for hosting on Amazon S3). That's a charge of 32 cents--so bandwidth, credit card, and DRM, altogether, come to $1.47. The calculation now looks like this:

$20 = cost to consumer
-$1.47 = bandwidth, DRM, credit card
=$18.53 = before split
-$11.12 = 60% to portal
=$7.41 to developer
37% = developer share

However, in some cases, there's another finger in the pie: some operations (like Reflexive) have an affiliate program, and others (like Trymedia) whitelabel their game offerings to ISPs and other portals (Gamestop's online sales offering is actually a whitelabel Trymedia offering). Reflexive offers 40% to affiliates (and we sell some games as a Reflexive affiliate); I don't know what Trymedia's deal with its whitelabel partners is, but I assume it's in the same range. This has both good points and bad points for their developers--the affiliate or portal's share comes off the top, so that the developer is going to earn less money on the sale, but on the other hand, affiliates and whitelabel partners expose the game to a lot of traffic that might not otherwise encounter it, so your potential audience is larger. But just to run the numbers:

$20 = cost to consumer
-$8 = 40% to affiliate/whitelabel partner
=$12
-$1.47 = DRM, credit card fees, bandwidth
=$10.53
-$6.32 = 60% to primary partner
=$4.21 to developer
21% developer share

Update: In comments, Russell Carroll notes that Reflexive's affiliate payment is not taken from the developer share, so actually their deal, even when payment is made through an affiliate, is actually closer to the previous calculation (i.e., 37% to developer).

Even here, we're still talking about what I'd consider a fairly attractive scenario for most developers. Let's assume a worst-case scenario. Let's say you're a developer that has gone to a casual game publisher like PopCap or Playfirst for funding, and they're paying you a 30% royalty--on net dollars received. And let's say the game is being sold on an affilite or whitelabel relationship through an intermediary like Reflexive or Trymedia--that is, there are 4 fingers in the pie: the actual affiliate/ISP/portal that makes the sale; the intermediary; the publisher; and, way downstream, you. Here's what you're looking at:

$20 = cost to consumer
-$8 = 40% to affiliate/whitelabel partner
=$12 to intermediary
-$1.47 = DRM, credit card fees, bandwidth
=$10.53
-$6.32 = 60% retained by intermediary
=$4.21 = to publisher
-$2.95 = 70% retained by publisher
=$1.26 to developer
6.3% to developer

Of course, in this scenario, the $1.26 payable to the developer is recoupable against development funding, so you probably don't actually see the money until after the game has sold some tens or hundreds of thousands of units.

So what are the lessons developers should learn from this?

1. If you can retain the right to sell off your own site, do, obviously. Even if your traffic is low, you keep 90% of the revenues, and that's gravy.

2. Sure, you should deal with us. Our traffic isn't that huge, either, but it's the single best deal you'll get, over than selling off your own site (or unless you can make a deal with XBLA--and good luck, they're kind of overloaded with submissions, and in any event there's a development cost in doing an Xbox version).

3. If you can reach any of the major portals, it's probably worth doing a deal, if you can do it directly; Yahoo! and RealArcade and BigFish and the like get a lot of traffic, and even though they take a big chunk, the exposure is worth it. But in most cases, they're less eager to work with individual developers, because they have limited business development bandwidth, and prefer to deal with larger partners. Still, if you can do it, do.

4. Operations like Reflexive and Trymedia can also offer you a lot of exposure, but because there is often (or with Trymedia, usually) yet another finger in the pie--the affiliate/ISP/portal/whathave you--the numbers start to look less attractive.

5. Deal with a publisher only if there is really no other choice.

posted by Greg at 4:40 PM 40 comments

40 Comments:

Interesting piece Greg. I wanted to clear up an inaccuracy. Reflexive has an affiliate program (it is more like a whitelabel, but that is a discussion for another day). Our program does not impact the developer share. (it may for Trymedia)

Developers get the exact same 40% (37-38% per your above calculation) from an affiliate selling the game as when it is sold directly from Reflexive. So if a game sells from Reflexive they get 40%, if it sells from a Reflexive affiliate they get 40% of the sale price that the developer set.

So following your numbers an affiliate sale through Reflexive is closer to the following:
$20 = cost to consumer
-$1.47 = bandwidth, DRM , credit card
= $18.53 = before split
- $7.41 = 40% to affiliate
- $3.71 = 20% to primary partner
- $7.41 = 40% to developer
37% developer share

Again, that may be different for Trymedia, but I wanted to clear up the inaccuracy as far as Reflexive is concerned. Of course if you use a publisher to get your game to an online distribution partner, you would get whatever percentage they gave you of what the portal gave them.

By Russell Carroll, at 7:19 PM

So your business plan went from
REVENUE FORECAST
2006: $426,000
2007: $10M
2008: $23M

to

REVENUE FORECAST
2006: $60,000
2007: $6M
2008: $21M

You ask the question "why not distribute through manifesto games?" and in return the response should be "How can anyone make money in such a low volume with someone who hit 15% of their revenue plan?"

With 100+ titles and 60000 in revenues, that looks like you are seeing 600 bucks a title per average, which means that a 150k advance from a publisher is probably best for all but maybe one of your games.

It was a nice attempt at spinning the numbers though, you are getting further from your roots and it is starting to show.

By Anonymous, at 7:26 PM

I have to say, it is very surprising that one can make such claims without even checking simple facts that are readily available.

FYI - Trymedia affiliate fees also do not come out of developer's share.

And, BTW, typical publishing deals to even first time game developers are 60%-75% of net sales not 30% as claimed in this blog.

By Anonymous, at 8:40 PM

Greg,

I appreciate someone pointing out why the economies are terrible in this industry. You did miss one small piece which unfortunately paints an even bleaker picture. With the advent of "Game Pass" and other such subscriptions (RealArcade and BigFishGames) and other sites who discount products (50% off at Iwin) with NO price protection, developers are getting a piece of a piece of a piece of $7 to 9 dollars rather than the full retail price.

The most common excuse as to why this practice is acceptable is because the portals will tell you that these are copies that would not have otherwise sold at the regular price. However, there is no statistical data to back that up and at a 3 to 1 ratio, that is hardly likely. If that is the case, then the portals should follow a retail model in which THEY will eat the cost of the differential and developers would retain the right to make money on their games.

The viable solution - switch to a manufacturer model and treat the publisher like a wholesaler. The developer sells the game to the publisher for $5 a copy and they can then sell it to a portal at whatever markup they see fit. Then developers can make their $18 on their own site, and be assured they will get at least $5 a copy from the portals who were gracious enough to put up their game.

Let't not even get into the "store shelf" line of crap. Retailers make between 8 and 12% on software sales, why the hell do the portals deserve 40 to 60%? I don't care how many eyeballs they draw, the digital shelf space costs them nothing and they stand only to make money. Its not like there are any significant costs.

Oh yeah, and the portals can make ad revenue off of your web version too and not share any with you because it is there to "upsell" to a download. Microsoft can keep their insulting 20% for a web version with ads. For 10 hours of game play, I'll make a download, put ads in that, and get 100% of the best of both worlds.

Anyone else want to jump on the screw the developer bandwagon?

By Anonymous, at 9:49 PM

Three anonymous posters with the same message? Wanna take bets on IP addies?

Anyhow, the overall message is correct, as far as I've seen. The question is whether you want to trade a better percentage for better exposure...

By Craig Perko, at 11:06 PM

Greg's numbers are slightly better than what the Casual Games Association tells people they should expect: One Billion Dollars!

By Michael, at 1:59 AM

In my experience download.com and tucows.com are now pretty useless for making money. As shareware.com is part of the same CNet network and links to download.com for content I expect the same can be said there too, but I don't have specific figures for that one.

Now don't get me wrong, they are all free so make sure to upload your game BUT they have changed a great deal over the last year or two. They are much more focused on adverts, bigger publishers, paid for reviews and paid promotions now so you just won't get the exposure you need.

For example, our new game which sells at a similar rate to our old game on our website (i.e. it appears to be equally attractive to people) had 150x fewer downloads off these websites than the old game.

I just want to dispel the myth that you can make a game, upload it to a few of the big free shareware sites and get rich. In my experience that just isn't true any more.

Don't quit your job, re-mortgage your house and run up your credit cards to make the game you've always dreamed of unless you have a solid marketing plan and at least some cash to run advertisements and boost visitors to your own site. If you're relying on a publisher or portal then it could work, but that's a very risky path to follow. The maths has to add up with just your own website sadly, other deals like this should be treated as a bonus. If you end up relying on 3rd parties to pay your bills then you could get into trouble very quickly.

By Anonymous, at 6:50 AM

While Russell has pointed out an inaccuracy with regards to Reflexive, for a lot of the portals and publishers in the space, Greg's assumptions are reasonably accurate.

There are definitely instances where a 30% rev share with one portals actually nets more revenue per title than a 50% rev share with another because of all the discounts taken off the top.

As for the poster referring to 60-75% publishing deals, if you can get that, take it! You won't find any players in this space willing to fund and market a title with a 60% rev share, especially for a new developer. I'd like to think that there's a few publishers who will go with a 50/50 split, but even then you'll need to be assuming a fair amount of the risk so your title isn't fully funded by the publisher.

The "solution" to this is a fixed price or wholesale model, where developers earn a fixed amount per sale, and the portals, publishers, etc are free to split revenues and fees however they choose.

By Brian Robbins, at 9:34 AM

Wow, I was somewhat educated on these numbers, but its still a bit disenchanting. At least physical retail has a logistical excuse to screw you.

I had an interesting chat about copyright with a collegue, I'm thinking this stems from the essential fallacy of the conversion model. Granted, I'll have a product for sale on that model in the near future, but for the next project I'm thinking microtransactions and/or ad-integrations.

By Patrick, at 11:37 AM

And, BTW, typical publishing deals to even first time game developers are 60%-75% of net sales not 30% as claimed in this blog.

At JimBob's website (or my own) through an affiliate program maybe. But for a top or mid-tier portal? Not so much.

Unless things have radically changed recently, Greg's analysis is pretty accurate. And I really hope that Manifesto is able to gain success without dropping the developer percentage (as happened in the earlier part of the decade with the big portals, as Brian Hook reported in his Pyrogon Postmortem, "We suddenly found ourselves losing negotiating leverage, and there was a pretty concerted effort on the part of portals (Yahoo! Games, Real Arcade, etc.) to negotiate revenue sharing percentages down -- early RealArcade titles would see 40 or 50% of the take go to the developer, but that number has dropped to 25% or even less in some cases. This effectively halved our potential revenue."

Compared to most other portals out there, Manifesto offers a very high royalty rate, more developer-friendly terms (GarageGames is also pretty dev-friendly that way, but they are a rare breed), a non-exclusive policy (common, but many portals are now locking temporary exclusivity), and a focus on non-casual titles. So if you are an indie developer producing non-casual games, there's really not much of a downside.

Just don't put all your eggs in one basket.

By The Rampant Coyote, at 11:58 AM

It is true that many developers will have difficulty making a direct deal with some portals because the portal has chosen to �limited business development bandwidth.� You leave the impression that a developer needs to settle for a 30% publishing deal in order to get access to these portals. This is not true. 30% is a reasonable revenue share for a full service publisher funding development. But a developer could get a different kind of �distributor/agent� deal (that some people call publishing) to not fund development but only help the developer get distribution on portals who �limited business development bandwidth.� A deal like this could give the developer 75% of the money the agent gets from the portal.

James C. Smith � Reflexive Entertainment

By James C. Smith, at 12:28 PM

It seems to me, (as a complete outsider) that online distribution has started to develop some of the same traps and inefficiencies of their 'brick and mortar' brethren.

By Anonymous, at 3:06 PM

Regarding Russel Carrol's post: he mentions taking off bandwidth fees. Does anyone know if this is the case with places like Real Arcade? I was thinking that the bandwidth charge would eat into the much lower gamepass prices far quicker than it would into $19.95. I think pretty much everyone gets a game pass these days whether it is for one game or not. RA might aswell stop advertising the $19.95 price.

By Anonymous, at 8:38 PM

I came across this blog entry and thought that this statistic would add something to the conversation. Look at this statistic below by the GDAA, "....300 in 2001 to over 1600 in 2005", that seems amazing. How does that effect prices of online games. More game developers prices $$$ of online games go down?

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The continued growth of the web and other interactive distribution services, such as mobile phones and interactive TV, has seen a boom in digital media development. These services are starving for creative digital content, such as animation, digital video and web applications to fuel further growth. It�s never been a better time to get into these industries.

Qantm College is Australia�s leading private provider of education for the creative digital media industries and has pioneered the development of cutting edge qualifications that have help to build the workforce needed for the continued growth of the Industries.

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For more information about getting into these exciting and dynamic industries contact Qantm College:
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By Christopher Howlett, at 7:08 PM

Greg said - But in most cases, they're less eager to work with individual developers, because they have limited business development bandwidth, and prefer to deal with larger partners.

Not true in Real's case - we're happy to work with individual devs. "Tropix" was developed by a team of four; "Cannon Blast" by a team of two. These are just two examples off the top of my head - there are many more small devs that we work with.

Brian said - "early RealArcade titles would see 40 or 50% of the take go to the developer, but that number has dropped to 25% or even less in some cases"

Not quite that draconian. Our standard distribution royalty rate is 30%. We did have 25% for a period, but we've corrected that. If anyone is still at 25%, they should talk with us.

anon said - Regarding Russel Carrol's post: he mentions taking off bandwidth fees. Does anyone know if this is the case with places like Real Arcade?

No, we don't subtract out bandwidth costs. We only deduct taxes, returns/refunds/chargebacks, payment processing fees, and syndication commissions (on those transactions sold through our synd affiliates).

Jeremy Snook
Content Manager, RealGames

By Jeremy Snook, at 11:09 PM

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